Todd Lohenry

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Election 2010: Wisconsin Governor - Rasmussen Reports™

Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, the likely Democratic candidate, now attracts virtually the same level of support as his two Republican opponents in Wisconsin’s race for governor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state shows both candidates earning 46% of the vote if Barrett runs against former Congressman Mark Neumann. Given that match-up, four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

The other GOP hopeful, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, also attracts 46% against Barrett, while the Democrat draws 44% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and seven percent (7%) remain undecided.

The new findings mark a tightening of the race. Both Republicans have led Barrett in surveys stretching back to the first of the year, although Walker has consistently run slightly stronger than Neumann. But the Democrat has steadily been gaining ground. This month marks his highest level of support to date.

In the previous surveys, Barrett’s support has risen from 38% in January to 42% in March, while Walker’s numbers have eroded slightly from a high of 49% in January. Neumann climbed from 42% in January to 46% last month.

As in most other states, the recently-passed health care plan is likely to be a factor in Wisconsin. Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters in the state favor repeal of the plan, compared to 56% nationally, while 43% in Wisconsin oppose repeal. These numbers include 42% who strongly favor repeal and 34% who strongly oppose.

Neumann and Walker both earn roughly 80% of the votes of those who strongly favor repeal, while Barrett picks up the same level of support from those who strongly oppose it.

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Following former Governor Tommy Thompson’s decision not to challenge him, Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold leads his three top Republican opponents and falls just below 50% support in his bid for reelection to the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin.

Democratic Governor Jim Doyle is not standing for reelection, and, at present, Barrett has no strong opposition for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Republicans will pick their nominee in a September 14 primary.

Men tend to prefer the Republican candidate in both governor’s race match-ups, women the Democrat. Unaffiliated voters tilt toward the GOP candidate.

Each of the candidates is fairly well known, with less than 20% of voters expressing no opinion of them.

Barrett is viewed very favorably by 18% and very unfavorably by 24%.

For Neumann, very favorables are 19%, very unfavorables 12%.

Walker generates the most positive enthusiasm, with 28% viewing him very favorably, 16% very unfavorably.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Forty-six percent (46%) of Wisconsin voters favor having the state sue the federal government to stop the health care plan from being enacted, but 42% oppose that idea. Doyle has refused to authorize the state attorney general to join more than a dozen other states in filing such a lawsuit, challenging the constitutionality of the plan’s requirement that every American buy or obtain health insurance.

Only 37% of Wisconsin voters even somewhat approve of the job that Doyle has been doing as governor, down nine points from a month ago. Sixty percent (60%) disapprove of his job performance. This includes 12% who strongly approve and 42% strongly disapprove.

Just six percent (6%) of the state’s likely voters rate the economy as good, while 50% view it as poor. Forty percent (40%) say the economy is getting better, 33% that it’s getting worse, and 22% that it’s staying about the same.

In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.

In Wisconsin during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed Obama defeating McCain by a 51% to 44% margin. Obama won 56% to 43%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen polling showed Kerry leading Bush in the state by a 48% to 46% margin. Kerry won 50% to 49%.

In 2006 Senator Herb Kohl was ahead of Robert Lorge 64% to 25% in the final Rasmussen poll. Kohl won 67% to 30%. In the governor’s race that year, Rasmussen polling showed Doyle leading Mark Green 48% to 44%. Doyle won 53% to 45%.

In Feingold’s 2004 reelection bid, final Rasmussen polling showed him leading 53% to 43%. Feingold won 55% to 44%.

See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.

Rasmussen Reports also has released recent polls on the 2010 governor’s races in Maryland, Texas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee and Vermont.

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Interesting summary with lots of valuable data…

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· 26/4/10 · Reblog